Donald Trump is more important than Mike Johnson in Friday's House speaker elections.
For Republicans, Johnson's desperate struggle to keep his job was nonetheless a suspenseful start to a pivotal day.
Even more, though, is at stake for the president-elect, who is promising to bring about significant change and is pushing for a swift start to his second term. Trump will raise fresh questions about his ability to successfully lead the GOP trifecta of power in the House, Senate, and White House if he is unable to get Johnson across the finish line.
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Implications of the House Speaker Vote for Trump
Therefore, the 119th Congress's meeting marks the beginning of Washington's new Trump era, with Republicans hoping to provide noticeable outcomes as soon as he returns to the White House on January 20.
Using intricate strategies necessary to overcome Democratic filibusters in the Senate, the country's new leaders intend to implement significant tax cuts and comprehensive changes to immigration policy. Such actions will need political savvy and unity, neither of which the House GOP is particularly known for.
However, House Republicans must first pick a speaker, a frequently routine operation that is extremely dangerous for Johnson due to the small majority, which means that if every legislator shows up, he may lose only one vote in his divided party.
The Republican from Louisiana is firmly believing that the GOP may be on the verge of blowing a huge chance.
Trump has to win quickly.
As united conservative rule takes root, Johnson's victory is not assured even by Trump's backing, which has stomped out the majority of Republican opposition to his MAGA movement. After seeing the limits of his authority prior to Christmas, when Republican defections in the House thwarted his requests to increase the debt ceiling, the president-elect has an additional reason to win Johnson's speakership.
A rerun of the fiasco from two years ago, in which Speaker Kevin McCarthy prevailed after 15 rounds of voting, would be disastrous for Trump and demonstrate how his goals may suddenly fall through a parliamentary trap door. Additionally, it would be a bad sign for the difficult process of getting the ruling party to agree on a budget, for the difficult concessions that must be made in any tax reform bill, and for the president-elect's aspirations to swiftly secure a significant increase in funding for his promised plans to secure the southern border and carry out mass deportations.
According to CNN's Kristen Holmes and Alayna Treene, Trump has consented to convene possible holdouts, indicating the significance of the speaker vote.
Republicans would not even be able to start the congressional process of certifying Trump's election victory if they are unable to choose a speaker by Monday. This would be a humiliating and enraged show for the president-elect. The certification was given four years after his mob attempted to overthrow President Joe Biden's legal election victory on January 6, 2021, by breaking its way into the US Capitol.
After winning a majority of the popular vote and all seven swing states in November, Republicans think Trump has a mandate to overthrow a Washington elite that many Americans feel disregarded their issues. But Republicans must demonstrate that they are capable of governing well enough to carry out their reform before they can overthrow the government and cut its spending.
Why is Johnson disliked by some members?
Despite his optimistic forecasts on Thursday that he would win in a single round of voting, Johnson might not have the votes.
Some members criticize the Republican from Louisiana for using Democratic assistance to pass measures last year, notably a multibillion-dollar aid package for Ukraine. However, given that Republicans did not control the Senate or the White House, his options were severely constrained. Others question if he is capable of leading the president-elect's agenda following a year-end battle over a stopgap budget measure that was sabotaged by Trump and Elon Musk.
After a bitter hunt for a leader following McCarthy's removal, Johnson emerged as a late compromise candidate and won the speakership in October 2023, but already one legislator has vowed not to vote for him.
Last month, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky told CNN's Manu Raju that nothing could change his mind since "there's nothing I want in exchange for my vote." Rep. Tim Burchett, another vocal opponent of Johnson, stated on Thursday that he would consider his choice over night. The Republican from Tennessee did concede that Trump's support for Johnson played a role. Additionally, he admitted that Johnson had contacted him on his need for a pledge to return to spending bills that addressed just one subject. In a phone conversation with CNN's Lauren Fox, Burchett said, "That's new to me."
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What Strategies is Trump Employing for the Speaker Vote?
Legislators like Massie and Burchett may be immune to the main challenges sparked by Trump or Musk, either due to their own values or conservative records that appeal to their constituencies.
Such MPs would most likely be allowed to oppose Johnson in a regular governance scenario, such as in a party with a working majority. However, party leaders are unable to implement such adjustments due to the tiny House majority.
In an attempt to strengthen his case, Johnson spent Thursday hopping between meetings with politicians and conservative media outlets' studios. Reps. Chip Roy, Ralph Norman, Andy Harris, Andy Ogles, Michael Cloud, and Eli Crane were among the GOP holdouts he spoke with.
"Mike is listening, he is a good listener, or he wouldn't have been there for the last hour," Norman said as he left the meeting. In reference to the acrimonious relations that existed between McCarthy and some of his party rivals, particularly his main adversary, former Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, the South Carolina Republican went on to say that "people trust Mike Johnson."
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